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Thinking in Bets, 425BC Edition (Herodotus on planning and risk)

“The best benefit of good planning is this: if one is thwarted by some setback, nevertheless one has the sense that the plans were well laid, but bad luck intervened. Whereas if one is a bad planner but fortune turns out favourably, one has the sense of having thrown a lucky roll of the dice, but nevertheless of having laid bad plans.”

Herodotus – Histories, Book Seven

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